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INTERNATIONAL CRISIS GROUP

Somalia Conflict Risk Alert

 

Somalia Conflict Risk Alert media releases

Nairobi/Brussels, 27 November 2006: The draft resolution the U.S. intends to present to the UN Security Council on 29 November could trigger all-out war in Somalia and destabilise the entire Horn of Africa region by escalating the proxy conflict between Ethiopia and Eritrea to dangerous new levels.

Instead of siding with one party in the civil conflict – the weak and fragmented Ethiopia-backed Transitional Federal Government (TFG) – the Council should apply maximum pressure on both it and the Eritrea-backed Council of Somali Islamic Courts (CSIC) to resume negotiations without preconditions
 

27 Nov 2006 15:00:40 GMT

Source: Reuters
 

ASMARA, Nov 27 (Reuters) - The United States said on Monday it was temporarily suspending visa services in Eritrea until the Red Sea state let its new consular officer enter the country.

 

The current U.S. consul is set to leave Eritrea early next month, but in a sign of worsening diplomatic relations the U.S. embassy said it had been unable to get a visa for her replacement.

 

"The bottom line is we need someone to provide these services. We can't do the work if we don't have the personnel," U.S. embassy spokeswoman Carol Herrera told Reuters.

 

Eritrean government officials were not immediately available for comment.

Somali militia puts troops near Ethiopia
By MOHAMED OLAD HASSAN,
Associated Press Nov 26, 2006
MOGADISHU, Somalia - The Islamic militia that controls much of southern Somalia dispatched thousands of troops Sunday to within nine miles of the border with Ethiopia, heightening fears that fighting would break out between the two sides.
A local reporter also said the Islamists were recruiting people for a holy war against Ethiopia, a largely Christian nation that is concerned about the emergence of a neighboring Islamic state and supports Somalia's fragile government.
East Sudan ex-rebels vow peaceful future
Monday 27 November 2006 00:55.
 Nov 26, 2006 (KHARTOUM) — Former rebels from eastern Sudan on Sunday vowed to lay down their arms and pursue the path of politics as they held their first ever news conference in Khartoum after signing a peace deal last month.
"We have decided to return home, stop fighting against the government and begin operating as a political party," said Abdullah Musa, spokesman for the Eastern Front rebel grouping.
 

Eritrean National Youth Soccer Team beats Zambia 1-0
Asmara, 25 November 2006 –

The Eritrean National Youth Soccer Team beat its Zambian counterpart 1-0 in the match that was held today at Asmara Stadium. In this first round game, the Eritrean under 17 youth team beat the Zambian team 1-0.

 

ንመስከረም ብሓሶት ዝኸሰሰ ጽሑፍን መስከረም ዝውጽኦ ሓበረታን፡ንውከሳ ዝአክል
 

Shariif Hassan And Sheikh AweysSomalia’s senior Islamist and parliament speaker
 sign deals to resume talks in Sudan


Sharif Hassan 25,Nov,06
Decisions have been issued unanimously in a press conference held by the Union of Islamic Courts consultative council leader Sheik Hassan Dahir Aweys and the government’s parliament speaker

 
The Islamic Courts and the parliament members in Mogadishu have agreed on at least six articles that are supposed to facilitate the resumption of Khartoum peace talks.

Both groups have called on the Ethiopian government to withdraw its troops from Somali. Islamists accused Ethiopia of deploying thousands of military troops to Somalia, a blame Ethiopia denies.
 

Somalia: Islamists take full control of border town

ABUDWAQ, Somalia Nov 24 (Garowe Online) - Islamic Courts gunmen aboard more than 30 battlewagons arrived Friday and took full control of Abudwaq, a town in western Galgadud region near the Ethiopian border.

 

The Islamist militia, led by the group’s central regions spokesman, were welcomed by traditional elders and local politicians in Abudwaq, residents reported.
 

...As if to reinforce Zenawi’s words, the Ethiopian military build-up within Somalia continues, as fresh armored vehicles and troops were reported to have arrived in one of the Somali government’s military camps near Baidoa, the government seat.
 

 
 

Ethiopian troops off to Somalia 24/11/2006 11:10 - (SA)

 Mohamed Olad Hassan Mogadishu - Hundreds of Ethiopian troops reinforced Somalia's transitional government on Friday, hours after Ethiopia's prime minister said his country was ready for war with an Islamic movement that had become the most powerful force in Somalia.
Residents of Baidoa, the government's headquarters, said 138 trucks carrying Ethiopian troops arrived early on Friday Nunay Selah said: "They parked their trucks around the town. They are digging trenches." Ethiopia had acknowledged sending military advisers to Somalia, but had repeatedly denied sending a fighting force.
 
Somalia: Many concurrent proxy wars in Somalia
Thu. November 23, 2006 11:33 am.
(SomaliNet)

Mr. Meles Zenawi accused the courts of being a threat to his country and told the parliamentarians that his government is planning all out war with the enemy.
..Ethiopia and much smaller Eritrea have unresolved border issues after Eritrea’s independence from Ethiopia and have been fighting ever since. Both countries and many Middle Eastern countries have been implicated in Somalia’s arms-inflow by a UN report earlier this month. While Middle Eastern counties and Hezbollah were accused of arming the Islamic Courts, Eritrea on the Islamic Courts side , and Ethiopia and Uganda on the government side are said to have military and intelligent personnel inside Somalia.

If Ethiopia carries out its threat and wages a large scale war on the courts, Eritrea will not sit on the sidelines and the border dispute between these two countries will be settled on Somali soil and blood.
 

Meles Zenawi Thursday said that his country
had
completed preparations for war

Somalia on edge as Ethiopia, Islamists ready for war

Emmanuel Goujon
AFP

November 23, 2006
ADDIS ABABA --  Ethiopian Prime Minister Meles Zenawi Thursday said that his country had completed preparations for war with neighboring Somalia's powerful Islamist movement, after efforts for dialogue failed.

 

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  ERITREA: NEWS

Potable water supply project in Mai-Dima finalized
By Shabait.com
Nov 25, 2006, 17:32
 

Mai-Dema, 25 November 2006 – A potable water supply project built at a cost of 1.6 million Nakfa in Mai-Dima town, Areza sub-zone, has been finalized. The project was undertaken in collaboration with the local inhabitants, the regional administration and its partners.

 Hagaz sub-zone: 2.4 million Nakfa potable water supply project finalized
 By Shabait.com  Awenjeli, 24 November 2006 -
In line with the Government’s relentless efforts to expand social services, a 2.4 million potable water supply project has been finalized in Awenjeli
administrative
Eritrea's mediation in Darfur controversial

afrol News, 22 November -Eritrean President Issayas Afewerki At a mini-summit on Sudan in Libya, Eritrea's unpredictable President Issayas Afewerki was urged to mediate in the Darfur conflict and its spillover into Chad and the Central African Republic. Eritrea earlier supplied arms to Darfuri rebels, but has now reconciled with the Khartoum regime. While Sudan's allies favour this mediation, others fear it is a trick to swap mediations on Somalia and Darfur.  
Deki-Gebru gets electricity supply
By Shabait.com
Oct 23, 2006, 17:37

Deki-Gebru, 23 October 2006 - As part of the efforts exerted by the Eritrean Electricity Corporation to expand electricity supply to all parts of the country, Deki-Gebru in Adi-Tekelezan sub-zone has now got electricity supply.
President holds talks with Norwegian Deputy Foreign Minister
By Shabait.com  Oct 17, 2006, 17:44
Asmara, 17 October 2006 - President Isaias Afwerki received and held talks today with the Norwegian Deputy Foreign Minister, Mr. Raymond Johansen.

In the meeting, both sides held in-depth discussions on the prevailing political situation in the Horn of Africa. Indicating that Norway is interested in the region, Mr. Johansen lauded the mediation role Eritrea has played in the East Sudan issue.
Mobile phone service introduced in Nacfa town
By Shabait.com
Oct 17, 2006, 17:28

Nacfa, 17 October 2006 - In continuation of efforts to expand telecommunication services in all corners of the country, the residents of Nacfa sub-zone in the Northern Red Sea region have now access to mobile phone service.
President conducts tour of inspection in Gash Barka region
By Shabait.com
Oct 8, 2006, 17:37

Asmara, 8 October 2006 – President Isaias Afwerki conducted a three days tour of inspection in the Gash Barka region, sub-zones of Golij, Tesseney, Haikota, Shambuko and Molki beginning from the 6th of October to observe the overall agricultural progress and infrastructural development programs thus far implemented.
 
Access to potable water supply in Shakat administrative area By Shabait.com
 Sep 29, 2006, 17:40 Shakat,

29 September 2006 - The inhabitants of Shakat administrative area in Karora sub-zone have now access to potable water supply thanks to the construction of a new facility to that effect. The project comprises the digging of a new well, installation of solar energy power, construction of a water tanker, as well as distribution of pipelines and stations.
President conducts discussion with department heads on agricultural and infrastructure development programs for 2006/2007 in Southern region 
shabait.com Debarwa, 28 September 2006


President Isaias Afwerki today conducted discussions with heads of departments and sub-zone, as well as Biddho Construction Company regarding agricultural and infrastructure development programs for 2006/2007 in the Southern region.
Eritrea says Security Council has encouraged Ethiopia to ?defy? international law 25 September 2006
? Ethiopia has been allowed to defy international law for four years and reject the binding decision on the demarcation of its border with Eritrea because the Security Council has chosen to encourage and support its conduct, Eritrean Health Minister Saleh S. Meky told the General Assembly today.
President Isaias holds talks with French Development Minister ,
shabait.com
 
Sep 23, 2006, 17:23


President Isaias Afwerki today received and held talks with the French Development Minister, Ms. Brijit Jirardin at the Denden Hall here. The talks focused on the development of Franco-Eritrean relations, the prevailing situation in the Horn of Africa, the role Eritrea is playing to promote peace and stability in the region, as well as the current global politics and the negative US interference in the internal affairs of different countries.

  WORLD MEDIA COVERAGE OF INTEREST


Ethiopia-US: Outsourcing the Somali war
Sunday 26 November 2006 01:00.
 By Haile Kassahun

Opinion
Somalia: Defend the
Motherland!
26 Nov 26, 2006, 00:35
By Mohamoud A Gaildon
Ethiopia’s Prime Minister has just delivered to the parliament of his country worrisome words pregnant with peril for Somalia. Ostensibly, the Union of Islamic Courts, not Somalia, is the source of a “clear and present danger.” But to deal with this “clear and present danger,” Ethiopia will have to invade and occupy Somalia. The words of the Ethiopian Prime Minister are, therefore, nothing but a declaration of war on Somalia.

Historic and religious factors, and US backing, shaping Ethiopia's aggression in Somalia
by Mahmoud Ahmed Shaikh (Friday November 24 2006)
 "There is no doubt whatsoever that the Ethiopian regime is corrupt and oppressive. But despite this the US government, which claims to be working for the entrenchment of democratic rule in the African continent, is a strong ally of Addis Ababa and of Zenawi."

Intelligence Brief: Rebels Advance on the Central African Republic
Drafted By:

http://www.pinr.com

..The rebels are joined together in the Union of Democratic Forces for Unity (U.F.D.R.) and claim to be former fighters who helped install President Francois Bozize into power in 2003. They have demanded that Bozize agree to power sharing talks with the rebel movement. The leader of the group, Michel Detodia, has accused Bozize of only empowering those within his ethnic group and of excluding the rest from power. Bozize seized power in a coup with the help of Chad in 2003 and won elections in 2005. Before the elections, C.A.R. experienced 11 attempted coups in just ten years....

the Monitoring Group on Somalia:
the Leaked Report
 

Letter dated … November 2006 from the Chairman of the Security Council Committee established pursuant to resolution 751 (1992) concerning Somalia addressed to the President of the Security Council

Secretary-General
SG/T/2523
17 November 2006
Department of Public Information • News and Media Division • New York

ACTIVITIES OF SECRETARY-GENERAL IN ETHIOPIA, 15-17 NOVEMBER




Somalia in mid-November: Sparring and Waiting for Someone to Strike

Drafted By: Dr. Michael A. Weinstein
http://www.pinr.com , 13 November 2006

...With increasing militarization on the ground, other interested external actors were constrained to take positions, most of them following dual-track strategies of backing one of the sides while at the same time calling for the I.C.C. and T.F.G. to engage in dialogue and enter reconciliation talks. An emerging trans-regional polarization pitted Djibouti, Egypt, Libya, Iran, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Syria, Sudan and Eritrea, which backed the I.C.C., against Uganda and Tanzania, which backed the T.F.G., Ethiopia and Kenya. The north-south divide reflects a convergent interest of the North African and Near Eastern states in gaining a sphere of influence in the Horn of Africa through a unified Somalia that would check Ethiopia, and the interest of the East African states and Ethiopia in preventing the push south and, consequently, in keeping Somalia relatively weak, if not divided....

Somalia: CIA blowback weakens East Africa

Monday 23 October 2006 23:25.

By William Church *

Director, Great Lakes Centre for Strategic Studies

We're in a struggle for the soul of our nation. Congress has just given the President authority to detain people indefinitely without charge or trial.

Outraged, and in response, Amnesty International has launched a new campaign that will fight to restore our traditional American values of justice, rule of law, and human dignity.

Immigrants are victims as 'apartheid' returns to South Africa

By Sharmeen Obaid Chinnoy in Diepsloot, South Africa

Published: 13 October 2006

"Corrupt culture" revealed among African diplomats,
 afrol News 10-Oct-06 05:06